A special state Senate election was held this week.

What is the outcome and what is the impact?

And a major 16 count criminal indictment revealed by the state attorney general.

So sit in with us as we get the inside out.

Off the Record.

Production of Off the Record is made possible in par by Bellwether Public Relations, a full servic strategic communications agency partnering with clients through public relations, digital marketing and issue advocacy.

Learn more at bellwetherpr.com.

And now, this edition of Off the Record, with Tim Skubick.

Thank you very much.

Welcome to Studio C. A special election was held this past week.

What's it all about and what does it mean?

Believe it or not, the New York Times reported on the Democratic victor in Bay Midland in Saginaw County last night, not because it ha a ton of readers in that region, but because it reports the Democratic victory could mean alleged bad news for Republicans in the fall, with control of the Michiga Senate hanging in the balance, firefighter and ex-Marin Chedrick Greene got 59% of the vote, and Republican attorne challenger Jason Tunney got 39.

And both candidates agreed on this expensive gas prices at the pump were part of the campaign.

And while Governor Whitmer did not mention President Trump by name she most surely mentioned issues that are directly tied to him including, quote, skyrocketing gas prices, the high cost of food, housing costs and health care, which is off the charts.

Meanwhile, at the national level, sources from the Democratic Party trumpeted that the wi in Michigan as bad news for Mr.

Trump.

In the fall.

However, state Republican Party chair Jim Runestead quickly debunked that theory, claiming candidate Tunney was outspent 10 to 1.

And as for the implications for the fall quote, there was little correlation between special elections and the general election.

The victory does mean, however, the Democrats in the Senate maintain control by hanging on to 20 votes.

On another front yesterday, local voters did approve 100 revenue issues at the polls while rejecting 23.

And in a real cliffhanger at first, the $99.9 million intermediate school district in Ingham County faile in three of the five counties.

But when the vote from Ingha County came in at the 11th hour, the millage proposal wa put over the top in Grand Ledge.

Voters rejected one bond for fire services, but approved several others for public safety and at the school level, 25 bond issues approved, 14 failed in all voters approved yesterday, $1.3 billion in new spending, and rejected 659 million.

So Beth, the New York Times reporting on this thing up in the in the thumb.

Why?

Well I mean, I think it's not so much that green one, that special election but the margin by which he won it was a it was a very big margin.

And I think a lot of people were looking at this election as kind of a bell weather for what to expect in the general.

I think Runestead is correct.

You can't necessarily predic a general based on the special, but you can see you know, where your weaknesses are.

If if he was outspent and your weaknesses probably in money.

And it also is in these, these costs that that basically need to go down.

If Republicans, want some kind of win behind them in the general election.

Yeah.

These elections that lead up to the midterms get a disproportionate amount of attention.

If you found yourself reading about a Florida special election for a House seat or perhaps a public service commission in another state, this is sort of Michigan's momen where this is our election that, you know, could have some sway on the midterms, and people are looking at it because they want to read the tea leaves.

I mean, there's, an axiom that some data is better than no data, and that just.

But data is dated.

Yes.

And and it very well could be by the time, you know, the, the general election, the next general election comes down.

It's just all we've got to look at, which is what makes it so fascinating.

Tim.

New York Times covered this because this continues the national narrative over the last 16 months.

The Democrats are killing Republicans in one special election after another, state after state after state, or even where they lose theyre dramatically diminishing their margin of defeat compare to Kamala Harris two years ago.

So this is part of the narrativ the Democrats are establishing that they are in the ascendancy that people hate Donald Trump, and they're going to take it out on the Republicans in November.

And this is the latest incident into the swing purple state Michigan.

First evidence here.

And it just parallels everything that's happened in every other state.

And things in my opinion, are going to continue just this way right up through and including the general election.

But isn't that the question?

Is it that the Democrats are killing the Republicans, or that the Republicans are killing themselves based on what we're seeing.

Both.

In the economy?

You know, the war in the Middle East and all of the above.

I mean, Trump's rating is in the toilet and his popularit is sinking rapidly day by day.

And in my opinion, it's going to continue to sink.

And the Republicans are going to just take a huge walloping like 2006, like 1974.

Same old, same old.

But Bill that the Republicans would argue with you and say, how can you sit ther and be a soothsayer and predict that nothing will happen between now and November?

That could turn this whole thing on a dime?

Is that not possible?

What else can they sa that's the best are little bit.

It also happens to be part of their truth.

They would say we don't know if it's a truth.

We got six months to find out.

It looks to m like it's not going to happen.

I don't think it' going to get better for Trump.

I think it's going to get worse.

I will just bring this back home.

So what does it mean in the state Senate?

Yes.

The the the Senate, the Democrats have the majority there.

you know, they've they've been kind of in a pinch of late with, with down a seat.

And they face a very real possibility that there could be a tie in the Senate.

so I think they're breathin a little easier there, at least for the next six months.

They have 20 votes, whic is what they need to pass stuff.

Yeah.

18 2018 doesn't make any difference procedurally.

I served in a tied 1919 legislature in the Senate.

I gotta tell you, procedurally, between now and the end of the year, it' going to mean absolutely nothing that Chadrick Greene.

They they made sure that Jim Brickley was on life support.

He was lieutenant governor at the time.

Yeah.

All all the, one party has to do is withhold a vote.

It'll never get to a tie breaking vote.

The key thing that's happened in the last two years is Republicans took control of the House.

Doesn't make any difference what the Senate does.

The House can stop it if they want to.

Once that happen.

Youll get letters on that man.

I think I think Bill's right there that that, the Senate has, you know, a very narrow majority.

And the the thing that can stop a lot in Lansing right now, as we have seen over the past year and a half, is Speaker Matt Hall in the House.

And it's it's a piec that's always going to be there for the next six months What about all these militias?

Is there a tax revolt out there, Ricky?

I mean, cost of living i what everybody is talking about.

And even when you look at sort of, you know, the the existential questions that are posed by you know, the war in Iran that that still comes back to the cost of fuel, the cost of fertilizer for.

But most of these passed, okay, if cost of living is so bad and I got a chance to vote no on a bonding issue, I'm going to vote no.

Well, every every district is different.

But still I think that there were enough no votes out there that, you know, peopl are focused on cost of living.

Yeah.

I think it's a little bit different too.

And something that's not in front of your face every day.

I mean, you know when I, when I have a millage, it gets added to my tax bill and I slowly don't notice.

but I do think that that's a lot different than going to the pump once a week, twice a week and saying, oh, shoot, I'm paying a lot more for the same product.

With the millage, you could be voting for something improved, better public services.

I think it's a little different.

What do you make of the vote tax revolt tonight?

I think it's hard to sa when when is the May election?

You know, you get a very low turnout.

It may election is, it in, you know, skeptics would sa that's why they have it in May and not in a different month.

But, so I think it's difficult to kind of read the tea leaves of that.

But yeah, a good number of them passed and I think it's, it's it's interesting but also it's, it's difficult to dra very firm conclusions with it.

But let me just answer my own question.

If you look at the polling data, okay, some I'm sorry.

I guess I'm not supposed to do that.

if you look at the polling dead and ask the people, what's the number one issue down near the bottom?

Number nine.

Number ten.

Number 11 is taxes.

Okay.

So I you know, the days of Bob Tisch, running around the state and and beating this foreign he was an anti-tax or.

Okay, who had any number of ballot proposals.

I, I think that I just don't think it's alive and well out there, depending on the district.

Do I get an amen from anybody?

Well, yeah.

I mean, that's kind of the point that they're that, you know, it's it's different circumstances.

It's a low turnout election.

It's a very, very local issue.

And you know, depending on what the purpose is for, if you can explain it to people, they can see, you know, they can do a cost benefit analysis.

Yeah.

Anytime you see the mone staying home in, it's in a fire truck, you say, yeah, that was worth it.

Right?

Okay.

And I think I think evidence of that is how much like the House, the Senate and the governor are focusing on property taxes righ now, right at the state level.

It's pretty understandable.

you know, I think people are focusing on, on that state level tax and what's happening with it, where is I feel like they probably think they have more control over how a local tax is managed and and divided.

These proposals have been doing pretty well at the local level over the last few years, and I think it's showing up in the way people voted now.

I mean, they trus their local units of government a heck of a lot more tha they do the people in Lansing.

And they're supportive.

All right.

So let's look at the U.S.

Senat race in the Democratic primary, which is also getting a lot of national attention.

major endorsement this week.

Is it a what moment or not?

Well, depends on what you think of endorsements generally.

But yeah, Debbie Stabenow, obviously a long time and very popular, former U.S.

senator from Michigan, has endorsed in the rac for Haley Stevens is the current sitting, congresswoman who is running for U.S.

Senate.

so, you know, certainly they would have worked together, while in Congress.

And I think that that i an interesting, pickup for her.

And I think I thought that Debbie Stabenow was going to stay on this.

Okay.

Well, I think I think some of the other candidates thought that, too.

I mean, I think the the response from Senator Mallory McMorrow, who is in the race, was interesting when she basically said, this is Chuck Schumer putting putting Stabenow up to it.

And this is the Senate Republican leader in Washington, a Democratic dem, a Democrat, against that.

She she said, I think this i Chuck Schumer kind of trying to to control the race through Debbie Stabenow.

And, that was that was an interesting one.

If I may piggyback on what you said, I'm going to piggyback McMorrow has said, what about Chuck Schumer?

She wants him out.

So this is paybacks may be yes.

No.

Yes, I would say so.

I mean, look, be carefu what you wish for Chuck Schumer, because I'm not convinced Hale Stevens is the best candidate.

The Democrat Debbie Stabenow, she's she's the she's the one that can beat Mike Rogers.

Well, maybe she's saying it, as Beth implied, because Chuck Schumer leaned on her to say it.

I'm just saying it may be a bad choice, because I think probably McMorrow would be a better general election candidate for the Democrats than Haley Stevens.

Maybe I'm wrong.

We'll see what happens.

Also, what about sorry, I was going to say this is some needed momentum.

I think, for Haley Stevens.

I think her fundraising report last quarter did not come in like, probably she would have wanted, she had a little bit of an awkward answer at the first, debate, the Council of Black Pastors hosted on a her a PAC accepting, kind of deferring away from that.

And so I think that this could this could be a good momentum injection for her team.

It could be.

But what does, an endorsement from Debbie Stabenow bring at this point?

I mean, she doesn't really have a campaign organization anymore.

Obviously she has some has, some gravitas, but is there I mean, it may bring some momentum.

We have a mailing list.

okay.

I mean, fair enough, but a mailing list only works if Washington only works.

But, you know, also requires some some follow up.

So what kind of organization will support what kind of institutional support does a Stabenow endorsement bring?

And, you know, is it enoug to really change the trajectory of progressives or very strong against or for Mr.

El-Sayed?

but are there enough of them?

Oh, it's a good question.

Are there enough of the and will they show up in August?

And I think, I'll say that he's done a very good job in recruiting young people to his campaign, some of those college students.

And during an August primary, it is, I would imagine, more difficult to get college students to the polls if they're not on campus.

And, so I think that most of them aren't right, right in, in I mean, I imagine I'll say and has it anticipated that hurdle and is working to address it, but it is a real concern about having, an August primary in that sense.

All right.

Let's so let's turn the page to your story the Detroit News has been working on now for two years Beth.

A little bit longer than that.

Yeah.

Okay.

The attorney general did what?

This week?

this week, she charged Fay Beydoun, a metro Detroit businesswoman and a Democratic, fundraiser with 16 counts related to he spending of a 20 million state, $20 million state grant that she received in 2022. and it was a, you know, she she alleged that she used this grant, which was supposed to be meant for a business accelerator program for expenses like Tunisian rugs a lease that led to a vacant lot.

And, a legal invoice of the attorney general's office is alleging is forged.

So it definitely create a lot of ways in terms of, like, how that grant process works and the controls over how it spent.

I think some unanswere questions still that that were that prompted a lot of questions from the affidavit, which was how Biden got that grant in the first place.

There's been a lot of finger pointing about who's responsible.

and I don't know that we're to the bottom of it yet of of how she came to get it.

Yeah.

I mean, I mean, this is you know, the charges were filed and, Beydoun and Beydouns legal counsel, as Beth has reported, pushing back ferociously.

You're counter suing?

yeah.

on this.

And so, you know there are still a lot of shoes to drop, once discovery begins.

they seem to think that either that is, Beydouns legal team seems to think either that they have a case, or maybe that they have a negotiating position to, work on countering these charges.

But, it's it's interesting that they're pushing back now, in somewhat more specific ways.

you know, it'll be interesting to see what happens this embarrassin for the Whitmer administration?

I mean, that MEDC is notoriously the sort of quasi governmental, entity.

And, of course, they didn't originate this grant.

but, you know, reporting has already changed some of the processes in the state legislature.

We have a more transparent process now for, some of the earmarks that people pursue.

and it's easier to tell where these kinds of things are coming from.

but I am kind of curious to see how far this get into the Whitmer administration.

and, you know, whether potentially that that ends up bein a little embarrassing for them.

She's put a lot on, Governor Whitmer has put a lot on the line to, you know, try and keep the MEDC functioning, you know, largely as is.

And Attorney General Dana Nessel has said that, the, you know, going after the leadership of the MEDC is not off the table.

Well, all of the above.

You're all right.

Absolutely.

The MEDC is an abomination.

And every candidate has said even if they would keep it like Mike Duggan says, the independent candidate for governor, he said, I would dramatically restructure i and change the way it operates.

So it's been a disaster from the beginning.

And Fay Beydoun, I'm kind of amazed.

It took two years to get to this point where these, felony charges come down against her.

I mean, God, it was like silence.

after the initial flurry of charges were launched, you know, two years ago now, finally, the, as you say, shoe drops this one.

And, we're going to find out going forward what happens.

But I think the Whitmer administration ought to b extremely embarrassed by this.

This was it.

Correct me if I'm wrong.

This is the creation of John Engler.

Okay.

When he was governor.

So when did this thing get sideways?

Because nobody was griping about this thin under the Engler administration?

Well, there was always there's always controversy about whether the state.

Corporate welfare.

Yeah, yeah, yeah, I've heard that 1000 times.

But there were no scandals.

There were no scandals there.

I mean, this was the scandal waiting to happen under this structure.

It just took a long time to happen.

And that's the thing.

Like, I know there have been a lot of calls for either abolishment or guardrails.

I mean, if I want a cat, I don't buy a dog and ask it to meow, right?

Like I feel like the MEDC.

There's the quote of the day.

The MEDC was set up to give it.

You know, it is not a regular government unit.

It is set up to give money to private corporations nine times out of ten.

And so it's it's difficult to put the guardrails that you would put in other that you would see in other agencies, because you're working with private corporations which require NDAs, which require now, there's still probably a lot of room for guardrails.

And I think Attorney General has has, pointed that out.

But like, how far do you get on putting in guardrails before you run up against the fact that you're dealing with private agencies, that you're giving money to private corporations?

They're they're parts of this that that are going to be really difficult in reforming that.

Did she have a relationship with the MEDC?

Beydoun?

Yeah, she was on the executive committee for the MEDC.

And that's I mean, there's so many dynamics at play with this grant and what went wrong with it.

One of them is that at the tim they didn't receive the grant, which was administered through the MEDC.

She was on the executive committee in emails and and and witness statements show that she was basically lobbying the MEDC for this money while sh was on the executive committee.

So there's I mean, the layers to this are replete, and I don't thin we've even seen all of them yet.

Yeah, I also I mean, the money was for something called a business accelerator, which is kind of, you know, a nebulous concept that it, you know, I mean, I looked up you know, what it what they are, but they can be seed money, grants, mentorship, just helping businesse build relationships that there's not sort of a hard line definition of wha this entity is supposed to be.

All right, let's talk about Twitter.

Czuba was on the show, the pollster, a couple of weeks ago.

And you made your point that a lot of people are playing this gam from a political point of view in campaigns, thinking that social media is the magic elixir to get you elected.

Let's see what this story's about.

It seems like Governor Gretchen Whitmer is flooding every possible social media platform, including Facebook, to get her message out to over 127,000 avid readers.

She also has one part of her team devoted to social media postings.

To be sure she's not alone, as other politicians are also basically still using mainstream medi for interviews and advertising.

But more increasingly, they are looking to the social media to get their messages out.

And at the recent state Democratic convention, the buzz was that the progressive wing of the party had used social media to gin up support for U.S.

Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed, and they claim it worked.

But this veteran pollster warns that social media, well, it may not be what it's cracked up to be.

Only 18% of the stat said they are even on Twitter, and only 4% said they use Twitter a lot.

And I think there's a whole lot of people who think campaigns are won and lost on Twitter, and that's not the case.

Researcher have found that younger voters do not vote in the same numbers as those will, you know, who lose primary elections by talking to older voter who dominate the August primary?

And suffice it to say, seniors are not spending hours, countless hours every day on social media.

On another front, the conflict in the Middle East is in the media.

Every day.

But reportedly, there's another misconception at play over this issue.

Mr.

Czuba discovered by talking to Democrats the Middle East.

Well, it's not what you think it is.

There was not one respondent in that democratic survey that said Gaza, Israel or the Middle East.

It is about prices and affordability, clear and simple.

This is not even close.

This is going to be decided o the economy, plain and simple.

To be sure, the Middle East story is having an impact on voters, but not because of the war policy, but because of the impac at the pump and the pocketbook.

Mr.

Pluta, is Mr.

Czuba correct?

Well, he's a professional pollster and I am not, but he is pretty good at his job.

And is that a yes?

Sure.

but I mean, this raises an interesting point, especially on the social media aspect of it.

And I mean, look at Governo Whitmer, who's got a very strong social media game.

Strong.

Yeah, she's got people on the staff that are either that's right for their job, but how much is social media a means for communicating?

you know, with younger voters, with the public at larg messaging versus an opportunity to screw up, like, remember the, Doritos communion?

yeah.

You know, video.

I mean, that I mean, they had to back off that really, really quick.

And they're spending a lot more time with, you know, posts on the dogs than, trying to be edgy, tend to things.

First of all, social medi probably works more with people who are delegate to a Democratic state convention where l fired and the progressives were very strong than it does in the general election or in a primary, a Democratic primary.

Linking that back to what Beth said, Czuba is right.

Absolutely.

The people who are going to participate are older voters, and they're not big on social media.

They're not really paying much attention to that.

They're not getting the stuff on Gaza and everything else.

It's not their source of news.

It's not their source of news.

And so peopl who are concentrating so heavily and hoping it translates into votes on social medi are probably missing the boat.

And he said, by the way, Czuba that's why Haley Stevens is doing as well as she is, because she's got more of the connection with older voter than the other two candidates.

But there's a euphoria in the younger generation about this stuf that this is the magic elixir.

Yeah, I mean, I, I think it's kind of all of the above.

Right?

You I think any candidate would, would be misplacing their efforts if they didn't look at every contingent of the population in terms o who they're approaching.

Right?

So you do have to have a social media presence.

You do have to have a traditional media presence as well.

but I yeah, I think you breakthrough wherever you can in and I, I wouldn't discount the role of social media completely because some of I mean McMorrow you know, she she sort of went viral for a speech that she gave on the Senat floor that then got picked up.

it does advance you through the Democratic ranks, but yeah, I think it would be I think it would be unwise to to put your trust in it, complete somebody the other da describe it like cotton candy.

but I don't know.

I digress, sir, what's your take on this?

I believe before we put the ribbon on this, I'm not sure which, dessert I would compare it to, but I do think that, you know, an important thing about social media is how algorithmically controlled it is.

Right?

So I could open my Facebook feed or my Instagram feed or my Twitter feed, and it could b entirely different than yours.

And I think it sort of promotes the sort of echo chambers that can elevate a candidate.

And on that note, thank you all for showing u and for giving us a great half hour of analysis and commentary next week.

More of the same right here on Off the Record.

Thanks for tuning in.

Production of Off th Record is made possible in part by Bellwether Public Relations, a full servic strategic communications agency partnering with clients through public relations, digital marketing and issue advocacy.

Learn more at bellwetherpr.com.

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