>>> TEXAS REPUBLICANS ARE BREAKING TRADITION AS THEY PLAN TO REDRAW CONGRESSIONAL MAPS AHEAD OF NEXT YEAR'S MIDTERMS.

IT IS A MOVE THAT MANY WERE NOT EXPECTING UNTIL THE END OF THE DECADE, BUT IT COMES AT THE BEHEST OF PRESIDENT TRUMP, WHO IS HOPING TO KEEP THE NARROW GOP HOUSE MAJORITY INTACT.

DEMOCRATS ARE TRYING TO PUSH UNUSUAL REDISTRICTING DRIVE COMPLETELY UNETHICAL AND DEPLORABLE.

DAVID DALY IS A SENIOR FELLOW AT THE ORGANIZATION FAIR VOTE, AND HE JOINS US TO IMPACT THIS DECISION.

>> THANK YOU FOR JOINING US.

LAST WEEK IN TEXAS THERE WAS AN EXTENSION OF A LEGISLATIVE SESSION AND REDISTRICTING IS BACK ON THAT.

I THINK THAT CAUGHT A FEW PEOPLE BY SURPRISE, BECAUSE WE ARE USED TO REDISTRICTING BEING A ONCE IN 10 YEARS EVENT.

>> THAT IS WHAT REDISTRICTING IS IN MOST STATES BUT THAT IS NOT THE CASE IN TEXAS.

THERE ARE A HANDFUL OF STATES WHERE YOU CAN DO A MIDDECADE REDISTRICTING.

THERE IS USUALLY TENDS TO BE DOUBLY POLITICAL.

RIGHT?

GERRYMANDERING TAKES PLACE AFTER THE CENSUS IN STATE LEGISLATURES, OFTEN TIMES LOCKS IN POLITICAL MAPS FOR A DECADE, BUT WHEN YOU DO THIS IN THE MIDDLE OF A DECADE YOU HAVE THE BENEFIT OF THE PREVIOUS COUPLE ELECTIONS, YOU CAN TELL WHICH SEATS ARE COMPETITIVE, AND IT GIVES YOU A REAL ADVANTAGE TO TAKE ANOTHER CRACK AT THOSE THAT IS WHAT IS HAPPENING IN TEXAS RIGHT NOW.

IT COULD HAVE REAL CONSEQUENCES FOR THE MIDTERMS ELECTIONS IN 2026.

>> SO I DON'T LOSE MY OVERSEAS AUDIENCE, THE PEOPLE WHO ARE NOT THAT FAMILIAR WITH REDISTRICTING VERSUS GERRYMANDERING.

FIRST OF ALL, WHAT IS THE PURPOSE OF REDRAWING MAP LINES FOR ESTATE AND CREATING NEW HOUSE DISTRICTS.

>> IT HAS A WONDERFUL IDEA BEHIND IT.

EVERY 10 YEARS AFTER THE CENSUS, WE WANT TO REDRAW EVERY CONGRESSIONAL AND STATE LEGISLATIVE STRICT IN THE COUNTRY IN ORDER TO ACCOUNT FOR POPULATION CHANGES IN POPULATION SHIFTS OVER PREVIOUS DECADES.

SO, IT ESSENTIALLY HAS FAIRNESS, REALLY AT ITS CORE.

THE TROUBLE IS THE POLITICIANS WHO DRAW THESE LINES, ESPECIALLY THESE DAYS, WITH THE KINDS OF TECHNOLOGY AND VOTER DATA AND SOPHISTICATED MAPPING SYSTEMS THAT THEY HAVE, CAN USE THIS PROCESS NOT TO CREATE AN ACTUAL FAIR MAP, OR A COMPETITIVE MAP, BUT TO LOCK IN A PART IS AN ADVANTAGE FOR THEIR SIDE.

THOSE ADVANTAGES HAVE ONLY BECOME BIGGER AND BIGGER AS THE TECHNOLOGY HAS IMPROVED, AND THAT IS GERRYMANDERING.

THAT IS THE USE OF REDISTRICTING IN ORDER TO LOCK IN POLITICAL BENEFITS.

>> SO, WHEN WE LOOK AT THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN DRAWING A MAP IN TEXAS, AND NATIONAL POLITICS, ARE YOU SAYING THIS IS BECAUSE, IF I CAN MAKE SURE THAT I HAVE A DISTRICT THAT IS MORE LIKELY TO GO REPUBLICAN, OR MORE LIKELY TO GO DEMOCRAT, THEN I CAN ESSENTIALLY SECURE MORE SEATS IN THE U.S. HOUSE, AND RIGHT NOW WE HAVE A VERY SMALL IMBALANCE WHERE REPUBLICANS HAVE AN ADVANTAGE BY JUST A COUPLE OF VOTES.

IF THEY WERE ABLE TO, WHAT, CREATE ENTIRELY NEW DISTRICTS, THEY WOULD JUST PAD THAT LEAD?

>> THAT'S RIGHT.

RIGHT NOW, REPUBLICANS HAVE A 3 SEAT ADVANTAGE IN THE U.S. HOUSE.

DEMOCRATS ONLY HAVE TO FLIP A HANDFUL OF SEATS IN THE 2026 MIDTERMS IN ORDER TO TAKE BACK THE CHAMBER.

ORDINARILY, THE PARTY THAT IS OUT OF THE WHITE HOUSE DOES PRETTY WELL DURING THE TERMS.

YOU KNOW, IF YOU LOOK AT THE 2018 MIDTERMS, REALLY GOOD FOR DEMOCRATS, THE 2010 MIDTERMS, REALLY GOOD FOR REPUBLICANS., IF YOU CAN GO INTO TEXAS, AND DO A MID-DECADE REDRAW, AND TAKE SOMEPLACE BETWEEN 2 TO 5 DEMOCRATIC SEATS OFF THE BOARD, SUDDENLY YOU HAVE MOVED THE REPUBLICAN ADVANTAGE FROM THREE SEATS, TO SOMEWHERE CLOSER TO SIX OR SEVEN.

THERE IS ALSO LIKELY TO BE A NEW MAP COMING OUT OF OHIO THAT COULD FLIP TWO CLOSE DEMOCRATIC SEATS THERE, AND THERE IS A REALLY IMPORTANT VOTING RIGHTS ACT REDISTRICTING CASE THAT THE U.S. SUPREME COURT WILL HEAR BEGINNING IN THE FALL, THAT COULD LEAD TO THE DISAPPEARANCE OF MAJORITY MINORITY BLACK DEMOCRATIC SEATS IN LOUISIANA AND PERHAPS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTH.

SO, WHEN WE SAY RIGHT NOW, KRATZ NEED TO FLIP THREE SEATS, THAT IS ON THE CURRENT MAP.

THAT COULD REALLY CHANGE.

DEMOCRATS COULD BE LOOKING AT HAVING TO PICK UP CLOSER TO A DOZEN SEATS TO WIN THE HOUSE, AND THAT GETS MUCH HARDER, BECAUSE THERE IS NOT MUCH COMPETITIVE SEATS OUT THERE DUE TO ALL OF THE GERRYMANDERING.

>> THE DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE SENT GOVERNOR ABBOTT A LETTER EARLIER THIS MONTH, EXPRESS AND SERIOUS CONCERNS REGARDING THE LEGALITY OF FOUR OF THE TEXAS CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICTS.

THEY BASICALLY SAID THESE ARE UNCONSTITUTIONAL RACIAL GERRYMANDERING?

>> I WOULD SAY THAT THE GERRYMANDERING LETTER IS TO KEEP COVER HERE.

I WOULD NOT CALL THOSE DISTRICTS RACIAL GERRYMANDERING, I WOULD CALL THOSE MAJORITY MINORITY SEATS THAT ARE DRAWN IN ORDER TO KEEP TEXAS IN LINE WITH THE VOTING RIGHTS ACT.

>> IN A STATEMENT, THE TEXAS REPUBLICAN PARTY SAYS THIS LATEST ROUND OF REDISTRICTING IS AN ESSENTIAL STEP TO PRESERVING GOP CONTROL IN CONGRESS, AND ADVANCING PRESIDENT TRUMP'S AMERICA FIRST AGENDA.

IN A WAY IT IS A VERY HONEST DECLARATION OF THEIR INTENTIONS.

BUT, IT IS ALSO VERY PARTISAN.

IS IT LEGAL?

>> IT IS VERY PARTISAN AND IT IS VERY LEGAL.

FIRST, IT IS VERY LEGAL, BECAUSE TEXAS ALLOWS THIS KIND OF MIDDECADE REDISTRICTING, BUT, SECOND, THAT ENTIRE STATEMENT IS ON THE TABLE RIGHT NOW U.S. SUPREME COURT.

IN A DECISION IN 2019, A CASE FROM NORTH CAROLINA CALLED COMMON CAUSE, THE COURT SAID PARTISAN GERRYMANDERING IS A NONJUSTICIABLE POLITICAL ISSUE.

THEY CLOSED THE FEDERAL COURTS TO THESE CLAIMS, AND THEY DID SO AT EXACTLY THE MOMENT IN WHICH LOWER FEDERAL COURTS, JUDGES APPOINTED BY PRESIDENTS OF BOTH PARTIES MADE IT VERY CLEAR THAT THEY HAD ALL THE TOOLS THEY NEEDED TO DETERMINE WHEN A PART IS AN GERRYMANDER HAD GONE TOO FAR.

THEY THROUGHOUT DEMOCRATIC GERRYMANDER'S IN MARYLAND, THEY THROUGHOUT REPUBLICAN GERRYMANDER'S IN OHIO AND MICHIGAN AND WISCONSIN, AND THEY HAD A RANGE OF EVIDENCE AND THEY SAID, WE KNOW HOW TO DO THIS, AND JOHN ROBERTS AND THE COURT SAID NO.

THEY SAID THAT THESE STANDARDS AND MEASURES WERE SOCIOLOGICAL GOBBLEDYGOOK.

THEY SAID IT WAS GOING TO LOOK LIKE THE COURTS WERE BEING POLITICAL.

SUPREME COURT THAT WAS BEING POLITICAL.

THEY LOCKED IN THESE GAINS FOR REPUBLICANS, THEY INCENTIVIZED BOTH PARTIES IN 2021 TO MAXIMIZE GERRYMANDERING, KNOWING THAT NOBODY WOULD STOP THEM, AND THEY ENCOURAGED STATEMENTS LIKE THE ONE WE SEE FROM THE TEXAS GOP, BECAUSE, WHEN POLITICIANS NOW SAY THAT WE ARE DOING AN INTENTIONAL PART IS AN GERRYMANDER, THAT IS EXACTLY IN LINE WITH THE DECISION THAT ROBERTS HANDED DOWN.

HE MADE THIS POSSIBLE.

THE COURT ENABLED THIS ATTACK ON DEMOCRACY, THAT BOTH PARTIES ARE ENGAGED IN RIGHT NOW.

>> IF THE DEMOCRATS DON'T LIKE --FELT LIKE THAT CORTEZ WAS A LOSS FOR THEM, THEY WERE CONTROLLING CONGRESS IN 21 PASS LEGISLATION AGAINST GERRYMANDERING?

YOU COULD HAVE CONCEIVABLY SEEN THAT AS A BIPARTISAN SOURCE OF AGREEMENT BECAUSE BOTH SIDES REALIZE THAT THIS IS THIS TECHNOLOGICAL WARFARE THAT KEEPS ESCALATING.

>> I WISH THEY HAD.

CERTAINLY WHAT YOU SAW AT THAT POINT IN TIME WAS A REAL PUBLIC PUSH ON THIS.

YOU HAD MICHIGAN AND COLORADO, UTAH AND MISSOURI, VIRGINIA, VOTERS IN ALL OF THOSE STATES, VOTING TO TRY TO REIN IN THE WORST EXCESSES OF THIS SYSTEM, AND YOU KNOW, RED STATES AND BLUE STATES, VOTERS HATE GERRYMANDERING EVERYPLACE.

AND DEMOCRATS ATTEMPTED TO INCLUDE THIS IN SOME OF THE VOTING RIGHTS PACKAGES THAT THEY WERE ADVANCING BACK IN 2021.

THEY DID NOT MAKE IT THROUGH THE SENATE, I BELIEVE LARGELY BECAUSE OF THE FILIBUSTER.

YOU DID NOT HAVE EVERYBODY ON BOARD FOR THAT KIND OF CHANGE.

THIS IS A NATIONAL PROBLEM.

IT NEEDS A NATIONAL SOLUTION.

IT CANNOT BE FIXED PIECEMEAL, STATE-BY-STATE, AND WHEN THE COURTS PULL THEMSELVES OUT OF THIS, IT REALLY TOOK AWAY THE LAST BEST POSSIBILITY OF A NEUTRAL ARBITER COMING IN AND TRYING TO ENFORCE A STANDARD.

IT IS REALLY DIFFICULT FOR POLITICIANS TO AND GERRYMANDERING.

THEY BENEFIT FROM IT.

THEY LIKE IT.

IF WE ARE GOING TO FIX IT, IT NEEDS A NATIONAL PROBLEM AND IT NEEDS TO TAKE ON THE REAL FUNDAMENTAL QUESTION, HERE, WHICH IS THAT IN A NATION THAT HAS 435 SINGLE-MEMBER DISTRICTS, HOW YOU DRAW THE LINES IN ALL OF THOSE DISTRICTS DETERMINES WINNERS AND LOSERS.

THERE IS A BILL THAT CONGRESS IS CONSIDERING RIGHT NOW, THE FAIR REPRESENTATION ACT POSED BY DON BIER AND JAMIE RASKIN, THAT WOULD MOVE US TOWARDS A MORE PROPORTIONAL SYSTEM, THAT WOULD MAKE EVERY DISTRICT A SWING DISTRICT.

IT WOULD PUT AN END TO GERRYMANDERING, AND BY THE WAY, IT ALSO CALLS FOR AN END TO MIDDECADE REDISTRICTING EVERYPLACE.

I THINK THAT IS THE KIND OF BIG PICTURE THINKING THAT THIS REQUIRES.

>> WHAT WOULD BE THE IMPACT, IF GOVERNOR NEWSOM, SAY, IN CALIFORNIA OR GOVERNOR MURPHY IN NEW JERSEY TRIED TO COUNTER WHATEVER HAPPENS IN TEXAS?

>> IT WOULD BE ADDITIONALLY BAD FOR VOTERS IN ALL OF THOSE STATES.

I THINK THE ROAD IN CALIFORNIA IS VERY DIFFICULT.

CALIFORNIA HAS A KNOWN PART IS AN INDEPENDENT COMMISSION DRAW ITS LINES.

IF CALIFORNIA WANTS TO DO SOMETHING ABOUT THIS, THEY WOULD EITHER HAVE TO HAVE A SPECIAL ELECTION TO CHANGE THEIR CONSTITUTIONAL SYSTEM, OR, THE LEGISLATURE WOULD HAVE TO FIND SOME KIND OF FIG LEAF TO SUGGEST THEY CAN DO A MIDDECADE REDISTRICTING ON THEIR OWN, ABOVE AND BEYOND THE COMMISSION.

THAT WOULD CERTAINLY WIND UP IN COURT, AND I CANNOT IMAGINE THAT THE LEGISLATURE WOULD WIN.

NEW JERSEY COULD DO THE SAME THING.

THEY HAVE A COMMISSION, THE STATE LEGISLATURE COULD TRY TO STEP IN, BUT, I THINK THAT DEMOCRATS HAVE REALLY MAXIMIZED THEIR GAINS ON A LOT OF THESE MAPS IT IS CURRENTLY A 9-3 DEMOCRATIC DELEGATION IN NEW JERSEY.

IT IS A 14-3 DEMOCRATIC DELEGATION IN ILLINOIS.

IT IS A 7-1 IN MARYLAND.

THERE IS NOT A LOT OF BLUE STATES FOLLOWING WHERE DEMOCRATS CAN DO WHAT PUBLICANS ARE TRYING TO DO, IN TEXAS.

IT IS GOING TO BE VERY DIFFICULT FOR THEM TO FIND A WAY TO MATCH THIS.

>> THERE HAVE BEEN SOME CRITICS OF WHAT THE REPUBLICAN'S ARE TRYING IN TEXAS, SAYING LOOK, THE PHRASE IS A DUMMYMANDER.

>> IS A GREAT TERM.

A DUMMYMANDER IS A GERRYMANDER DRAWN FOR ONE SIDE, BUT THEN IT BACKFIRES.

YOU SPREAD YOUR VOTES TOO THIN AND YOU GET TOO GREEDY TRYING FOR TOO MANY SEATS.

I THINK THIS IS UNLIKELY TO HAPPEN IN TEXAS.

I THINK THE FACT WE ARE TALKING ABOUT IT IN MANY WAYS IS A SIGN THAT DEMOCRATS DON'T HAVE A LOT OF GOOD OPTIONS, HERE, OTHER THAN TO TRY TO TELL REPUBLICANS, WELL, BE CAREFUL.

THIS MIGHT NOT WORK.

IT MIGHT BACKFIRE ON YOU.

TEXAS HAS A 25-13 REPUBLICAN DELEGATION.

ONLY ONE OF THOSE 25 REPUBLICAN SEATS IS REMOTELY COMPETITIVE.

ONE SEAT WAS WON AT 57% OF THE VOTE IN 2024.

OF THE OTHER 24 SEATS, ALL OF THEM WERE ONE COAT WITH MORE THAN 60% OF THE VOTE.

13 OF THOSE SEATS WERE ONE COAT WITH MORE THAN 65% OF THE VOTE, OR WERE COMPLETE THE UNCONTESTED AT ALL.

IF REPUBLICANS WANT TO DO THIS, THE TWO SOUTH TEXAS DISTRICTS, THE 34th AND 20 A FOR THE DEMOCRATIC DISTRICTS, YOU COULD WIPE THOSE AWAY PRETTY QUICKLY.

IF YOU WANTED TO GO FOR A THIRD OR A FOURTH SEAT, WHAT YOU WOULD DO IS GO UP TOWARDS DALLAS-FORT WORTH, YOU WOULD TAKE A LITTLE PIECE OF THE CITY AND THEN YOU WOULD ATTACH IT TO A BIG SWATH OF CENTRAL EASTERN TEXAS, THOSE RED DISTRICTS RIGHT NOW THAT ARE ALMOST ENTIRELY UNCONTESTED BY DEMOCRATS.

BIG REPUBLICAN COUNTIES.

SO, I THINK THAT YOU COULD PROBABLY GET TO FOUR SEATS WITHOUT EVEN PUTTING MENDER ON THE TABLE.

REPUBLICANS HAVE NOT DRAWN A DUMMYMANDER IN THE MODERN TECHNOLOGICAL ERA.

THEY ARE VERY GOOD AT THIS.

THE CONSULTANT THEY BROUGHT ON IN 2021 TO WORK ON THEIR MAPS, IT'S THE SAME CONSULTANT WHO DREW THE MAPS IN WISCONSIN.

A MAP THAT HAS WITHSTOOD DEMOCRATIC WAVES, AND NEVER COME CLOSE TO BACKFIRING.

I THINK THAT WHEN WE TALK ABOUT A DUMMYMANDER, WE ARE TALKING ABOUT SOMETHING THAT MIGHT HAVE BEEN MORE APT TO HAPPEN IN THE 1990S OR THE TO THOUSANDS, NOT REALLY GOING TO HAPPEN RIGHT NOW.

>> THERE ARE PEOPLE WHO SAY LISTEN, THE MAPS GET GERRYMANDERED EVERY 10 YEARS.

IN 2018 WE HAD A FEW TIMES WHERE DEMOCRATS OVERCAME SOME OF THOSE.

>> YOU ARE RIGHT.

DEMOCRATS TOOK BACK THE HOUSE IN 2018, BUT I THINK WHAT IS IMPORTANT TO RECOGNIZE ABOUT IS THAT DEMOCRATS WERE ABLE TO WIN THAT BACK, NOT BECAUSE THEY DEFEATED GERRYMANDERING, OR BECAUSE THESE MAPS BACKFIRED, BUT, IT IS BECAUSE DEMOCRATS AND CITIZENS DEFEATED THESE MAPS IN COURT, AHEAD OF TIME.

SO, YOU HAD COURT CASES THAT CREATED FARRAR MAPS AND GOT RID OF THE GERRYMANDERED MAPS IN PENNSYLVANIA, AND PARTS OF FLORIDA, AND VIRGINIA, AND NORTH CAROLINA.

SO, THE MATH IN 2018 WAS VERY DIFFERENT FROM THE MAP ELSEWHERE.

DEMOCRATS ALSO WON THAT YEAR BECAUSE THEY WERE ABLE TO WIN ABOUT 75% OF THE SEATS THAT THEY FLIPPED --WERE DRAWN BY COURTS, OR DRAWN BY COMMISSIONS.

SO, THEY MAXIMIZED THEIR GAINS IN THE FAIR, COMPETITIVE DISTRICT WHERE IT WAS STILL POSSIBLE TO DO THAT.

THEY DID NOT REALLY MAKE ANY GAINS AT ALL ON GERRYMANDERED MAPS.

THEY WERE ABLE TO WIN BACK TWO SEATS IN TEXAS AND TWO SEATS IN MICHIGAN, THAT WAY.

FOUR OF THEM.

AND THAT IS ALL THAT THESE MAPS SURRENDERED OVER A DECADE, IN ALL OF THESE STATES, AND ALL OF THESE ELECTIONS.

THOSE DISTRICTS DON'T EXIST ANYMORE.

REPUBLICANS IN 2021 WENT INTO INDIANA AND INTO OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS, THEY WENT INTO UTAH, THESE SEATS THAT WENT TO DEMOCRATS IN 2018, IN THAT WAVE, THEY WERE REDRAWN.

THEY ARE NOT GOING TO GO BACK THE OTHER WAY.

SO, THERE IS A REALLY SMALL POOL OF SEATS FOR DEMOCRATS TO GO AFTER.

YOU HAD 37 OF 435 RACES IN 2024, THAT WERE WITHIN 5%.

DEMOCRATS ALREADY ONE COAT 22 OF THOSE, THAT YEAR.

IT LEAVES YOU WITH 15 THERE WERE ONLY THREE DISTRICTS IN WHICH A REPUBLICAN WAS ELECTED, BUT KAMALA HARRIS CARRIED THE DISTRICT.

THAT WAS DON BACON'S SEAT IN NEBRASKA, MICHAEL LAWLER IN NEW YORK, BRIAN FITZPATRICK IN PENNSYLVANIA.

SO, YOU COULD GIVE IT A SHOT.

BUT, THE NUMBER OF TARGETS THAT HAVE MANY VOTERS YOU WOULD HAVE TO PERSUADE IN THESE DISTRICTS, VERY DIFFICULT AT THIS POINT.

>> SENIOR FELLOW AFFAIR AUTHORS, THANK YOU VERY MUCH.

>> THANK YOU VERY MUCH.

MY PLEASURE.